Are People Tired of Middle East Peace Progress?

1. Peace, peace and more peace

Remember when Donald Trump first ran for office in 2016 and promised that “we’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning”? Well, it’s a matter of anyone’s political persuasion to judge just how much America has been winning in the past four years and whether there really are people out there who are sick and tired of winning.

But to paraphrase Trump’s promise, could people be sick and tired of too much Middle East peace?

The past few weeks have brought about a flurry of peacemaking activity, or at least what some in Washington and Jerusalem see as peacemaking activity.

First came the surprise normalization accord reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, an accord which is expected to be formally signed at a White House ceremony perhaps as early as next week. Then came the direct flights from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi, with Jared Kushner and the U.S. Middle East team on board for the debut flight. And then the Saudi and Bahraini permission given to Israeli planes to fly over their airspace. And last Friday, another surprising agreement brokered by Trump: Serbia has agreed to relocate its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and Kosovo confirmed it would establish diplomatic ties with Israel.

Just how important are these recent developments?

These are all positive steps, potentially capable of breaking the sense of Israeli isolation and of breathing new life into the dormant Middle East peace process. But it’s important to note that as impressive as the White House signing ceremony will be, this is not a peace accord, at least not in the traditional sense of the word. Israel and the UAE never engaged in war, they do not share a border, and have had informal ties for decades. Furthermore, the normalization agreement with the UAE, and the civil aviation gestures from Saudi Arabia, do nothing to promote the real peace process—the one with the Palestinians. In fact, many on the Palestinian side believe that it will only further postpone any chance of negotiations on a two-state solution with Israel, since Netanyahu and his government can now argue that Israel proved it is an integral part of the Middle East, without having to first resolve its conflict with the Palestinians.

With elections around the corner, does it have any political significance in the U.S.?

To answer this question, try to imagine a cohort of ten voters in a swing state. How many of them have heard of the Kushner-brokered deal between Israel and the UAE? How many can point to the UAE on a map? How many follow Balkan geopolitics and appreciate the importance of Serbia moving its embassy or Kosovo and Israel forming diplomatic relations? And of those who do, how many care or view these developments as an issue in the upcoming elections?

The answer is clear: Very few. 

These moves, all framed in the broader context of Trump’s support for Israel, will, of course, help with Christian evangelical voters who care deeply about the Jewish state; but by now, most white evangelical voters are already convinced that Trump is pro-Israel.

Does it help embattled Jared Kushner save his image?

Kushner has taken a lot of heat for his role as Trump’s frontman in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Now, he’s all over the media, promoting the UAE-Israel deal and has been very visible in his shuttles between Israel and the Gulf states.

The success in brokering the deal between Israel and the UAE can indeed be credited to Kushner, who used his sway with the Gulf leaders and with Netanyahu to finalize the accord.

In addition, Friday’s agreements with Serbia and Kosovo demonstrate how when the U.S. administration uses its leverage, it can get partners to go the extra mile, even when it relates to the touchy issue of ties with Israel.

But it also highlights the fundamental shortcoming of Kushner’s view—and that of the Trump administration in general—when dealing with the Middle East. They know how diplomacy works, they understand how Middle East actors operate and they are fully aware of how to use carrots and sticks to advance regional goals. And yet, for some reason, Kushner and Trump decided not to use these tools when dealing with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Instead, they decided to push the Palestinian Authority to the corner, offering it to either accept an unacceptable peace plan or be ignored forever.

Clearly, a White House ceremony starring leaders of Israel, the UAE and the United States will be an impressive event. An event featuring Netanyahu, Abbas and Trump would be way more impressive, and ultimately much more consequential.

2. Why are Jewish groups rooting for Cyprus?

Even in the best of days, a U.S. decision to lift an arms embargo imposed on the small Mediterranean island nation of Cyprus would not make huge headlines. And at a time of global pandemic, mass unemployment,  protests and a heated election, there’s little chance anyone noticed the State Department’s decision to “waive restrictions temporarily for FY 2021 on the export, re-export, retransfer, and temporary import of non-lethal defense articles and defense services controlled under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation destined for or originating in Cyprus.”

The background:

The embargo was imposed by the U.S. in 1987 in order to encourage both sides of the Cypriot divide, the Greek-allied Cyprus and the Turkish-backed Northern Cyprus, to enter into reconciliation talks. Now, as relations between the U.S. and Turkey have gone sour, the U.S. is partially lifting the ban, in a jab at Ankara and the Erdogan regime.

Behind the scenes, there was a fair amount of lobbying for the sanction relief by Jewish organizations.

The American Jewish Committee’s CEO David Harris welcomed the move, calling it a “milestone in the U.S.-Cyprus bilateral relationship, one that will have a positive effect on the increasingly integrated Eastern Mediterranean.”

Why would these organizations care about U.S. arms sales to Cyprus?

It all has to do with the emerging notion of a Hellenic regional partnership, which encourages ties between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, as a counterweight to Turkey’s increasing power in the region.

This is a clear interest of Israel, and Jewish groups in America were quick to follow suit and lobby for it in Washington.

A reminder of how volatile these issues can be: It was just a decade ago when Jewish American groups actively advocated in favor of Turkey, when it was on Israel’s side, even to the point of dampening relations with the American Armenian community. 

A lot has changed since then: Turkey has become hostile, pushing Israel to chose other regional partners, and American Jews switched sides without a blink.